A Wild, Wild, Wide-open Race

Here are five Big Things about the recent primary election (and a recent Critical Insights poll) that were missed or underemphasized by what we old-timers of the alternative press tenderly call the "straight" press:

1. Chandler Woodcock is a fringe candidate.

The smiling, down-to-earth, from-out-of-nowhere state senator who won the Republican nomination for governor is not just a social conservative. In Maine terms, he is from the right-wing fringe. He not only opposes abortion and gay rights, he wants intelligent design taught in schools. He captured a major-party nomination with 2.6 percent of registered voters, in part because of a get-out-the-vote effort by Christian fundamentalists. "He focused in on the churches," says second-place finisher state senator Peter Mills.

Woodcock had an intelligently designed campaign. He saved many TV ads until the last days before the election when voters made up their minds. More important, "we were shooting for those folks who were going to vote," says Chris Jackson, his campaign manager.

Most important, his campaign made sure Woodcock's side voted. Their grass-roots effort in Franklin County produced over 900 votes for Woodcock in Farmington alone, in a statewide race decided by about 2300 ballots. This is Woodcock's home turf, but "even I was a little blown away" by such numbers, says Jackson.

Charles Webster, a conservative former Farmington legislator, worked hard for those votes. He says he brought in about 350 absentee ballots, many from Democrats who changed their registrations. Mills says Webster is "obsessed" by such issues as gay marriage, but Webster denies emphasizing social issues. "It was blue collar," he says — meaning he convinced working-class folks that Woodcock was their guy.

Statewide, an effort was put on by the Maine Jeremiah Project, a several-hundred-strong, fundamentalist political group run by Bob Emrich, pastor of Emmanuel Bible Baptist Church in Plymouth and a Republican State House aide who personally worked on Woodcock's campaign.

"Yes, we did a lot of get-out-the-vote effort, but we didn't say vote for Chandler," Emrich claims, while admitting the Jeremiah Project helped the candidate. He says he was mindful that efforts directly on behalf of Woodcock could have triggered more matching funds for the publicly financed Mills.

Jackson "absolutely" expects Democrats to go after his man on social issues with their advertising. Normally, a candidate with Woodcock's views would have little chance to win high office in Maine. Even two Republican political experts do not give Woodcock a chance.

"I can't imagine the people of Maine choosing a governor who is pro-life and doesn’t believe in evolution," says Bowdoin government professor and pollster Chris Potholm. "It's not 1906, it's 2006."

"Baldacci is probably going to crush Woodcock," says Joseph Reisert, Colby government department chairman and the Waterville and Augusta newspapers' Republican columnist.

But . . .

2. John Baldacci is REALLY weak.

"Miller got 45 percent of the vote in Washington County; that's the [uncovered] story" of the primary election, says Roy Lenardson, who ran Peter Cianchette's Republican campaign against Baldacci in 2002.

The governor's primary opponent, Chris Miller, a complete unknown who spent almost no money, got 24 percent statewide. In Somerset County, he received 34 percent and in Piscataquis 33 percent.

Miller's tally was a protest vote against Baldacci, political observers agree. As polls have shown for over a year, our "business-friendly" governor is in trouble with liberals (as well as many others for other reasons).

"Twenty-five percent of the diehard Democrats stepped away from the governor," says Pat LaMarche, the Green Independent gubernatorial candidate. "That's very good for us."

But Woodcock's nomination would seem to be good news for Baldacci. And, as a privately financed candidate, Baldacci will not be limited in the amount of money he can raise, unlike Woodcock, LaMarche, and the two other publicly financed Clean Election candidates, independents Barbara Merrill and (if he qualifies for the money) John Michael.

Peter Mills points out, however, that as Baldacci raises money, public financing will kick in for the other candidates to match his dollars, up to $1.2 million for each. Much of this potential $4.8 million, Mills predicts, will be spent on TV advertising that tears into the governor.

3. When both major-party candidates are weak, the publicly financed alternatives are strengthened.

LaMarche, who ran for governor before, now has a real shot at being our first woman chief executive. Although ex-Democrat, now-independent state representative Barbara Merrill is less known and experienced, she will be financed to have a chance as well.

"The disaffected [from Baldacci] Democrats come from all over, liberals as well as fiscally conservative Democrats upset with Baldacci's handling of the state budget," Merrill says. "And on the Republican side, they are looking for a reasonable moderate."

If Michael, a former Democratic state rep and peripheral 2002 gubernatorial candidate, succeeds in convincing state officials that being a minute late with the qualifying paperwork should be overlooked, and he gets his hands on $1.2 million, he will be a significant factor in the fall race. It is unlikely he could win since he appears to appeal mostly to the angry right wing, but he may draw from Woodcock.

4. Pat LaMarche potentially has broad support.

Conventional political wisdom sees the Greens' LaMarche taking from Baldacci. But in a recent poll the Portland firm Critical Insights found that LaMarche draws more from Independents and Republicans than from Democrats. Other polling agrees. The Greens' own numbers in a recent poll show similar results, and Potholm says that in the 2000 presidential election the Greens' Ralph Nader drew more from Independents and Republicans than from Democrats.

The fact that a Green draws less from Democrats than others is not necessarily good for Baldacci. Broad appeal obviously makes LaMarche stronger.

An upbeat, warm radio "personality" in the media age of personality politics, LaMarche will stress, she says, "the positive solutions, how to get us out of the quicksand."

Both LaMarche and Merrill may appeal especially to a group that political experts see nationally as an important swing voter, the suburban woman.

5. The Clean Election law has changed everything in gubernatorial politics.

Because the law limits the total money spent, grass-roots efforts are again important. Grass-roots work "was the difference-maker for us," says Chris Jackson, of Woodcock's campaign.

A major function of parties is raising money, so public financing "reduces the parties tremendously," Potholm says. He marvels that Michael, whom he sees as "a real fringe candidate," might qualify for up to $1.2 million of taxpayer money.

Public financing adds to the "fragmentation" of the electorate previously dominated by two parties, say both professors Potholm and Reisert.

So the race is as wide open as a black hole. Even Baldacci or Woodcock could win.

Most people consulted for this article thought the winner would get between 30 and 40 percent of the vote. In a previous crowded race, in 1994, when he was first elected governor, Independent Angus King got 35 percent; former Democratic governor Joseph Brennan received 33 percent; Republican Susan Collins, now a US senator, got 23 percent. Potholm believes Woodcock could land in the 25 percent neighborhood if voters know about his social stands. He sees the other candidates making sure they will.

Another factor in this year's exceedingly complex gubernatorial political equation is the so-called taxpayers' bill of rights (TABOR) initiated referendum, a conservative tax and spending cap, also on the ballot in November. Most political hands agree it strengthens Woodcock, but when massive anti-TABOR advertising is splashed over the TV screens, it "can be used as a proxy" for Baldacci that won't have to be reported as a Baldacci campaign contribution, Mills says.

"More of the electorate is in play," says Potholm. "It's the most fascinating gubernatorial race in decades."

read more of this blog»